The effectiveness of media in crisis management depends more than anything on their ability to persuade audiences—an ability that has faced serious challenges in the era of social media and the proliferation of competing narratives. Adopting a futures-oriented approach grounded in persuasive analysis, this study seeks to design a localized model for how Iranian media can confront social crises in ways that help rebuild social capital, strengthen public trust, and enhance the persuasive function of the media.

The present research was conducted using a qualitative methodology, employing semi-structured interviews and a three-stage Delphi technique. Participants were selected through purposive sampling based on theoretical saturation. In total, 35 individuals—including media managers, communication studies scholars, crisis management experts, and futures studies specialists—were interviewed and analyzed.

Findings derived from thematic analysis indicate that a fundamental shift is required from directive and emotion-driven persuasion toward cognitive, interactive, and narrative-based persuasion. The results also emphasize that enhancing transparency, enabling meaningful audience participation, ensuring informational coherence, and strengthening media credibility are essential prerequisites for media success in addressing complex crises of the future. In an environment characterized by uncertainty, rapid information flows, and declining institutional trust, media organizations must move beyond one-way messaging and adopt dialogic and trust-centered communication strategies.

Ultimately, this research proposes a forward-looking model for improving the persuasive capacity of media during social crises. The model is designed with sensitivity to Iran’s cultural and institutional context and offers practical potential for localization within national media policymaking. By aligning persuasive communication with futures thinking, the study provides a strategic framework to help media organizations respond more effectively to emerging social crises while contributing to long-term public trust and social resilience.